Rain and showers /snow from Frid 30th July

[David Simpson]

Been watching this for the last week and models have been consistent with the weather pattern changing around this date.The highs have shifted further North and it looks the most promising yet.Here's watching this one!!!!!!Finished planting our last lot of 4000blueberry plants so it can rain all it likes!!(Sorry guys it was me putting the omen on no rain for us here in the South!)

[Stale fish]

Good work Tony, must be great to have them all planted!!!

3 days with showers forecast in a row, that must nearly be a record for this year!!

Just hope we get a bit, fingers crossed.

[wingtipvortex2]

3 days with showers forecast in a row, that must nearly be a record for this year!!

I agree! still a week out though, it may change to nada, as it has been lately

[David Simpson]

Yep looks promising, early days and the factors to watch seem to be the moisture inflow from central Aust along the troughline and positioning of the high. It's a complex scenario with a couple of cold fronts to pass through and low pressure systems far to our south. GASP actually has a low forming directly overhead Thursday, which I would imagine bring rain to the SE with the moisture feed from the north, it then has the low deepening to our SE which would give us strong southerlies with the 540 line well north. Knowing GASP this will all change with the next model run, I'm sure we'll all be watching with interest as the week unfolds.

[troutmaniac]

The charts sure have being doing there big shuffles on each new model run - but, it does look the goods! don't want to jinx it too early though. it looks fairly mild at this stage but hopefully things will change.

[troutmaniac]

looks alright for some snowfall for Saturday night into Sunday now. Still not very cold but there could be some great totals at higher elevations.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/stati ... 3days/snow

I'll be up at 1007m asl - so hopefully will get my first decent dump for the year - but definitely do not want to jinx it this far out!

[TonyO]

Models Still holding on for some rain thursday and further fronts to follow over weekend,as TM said some snow higher elavations later in period.Anyway it will be nice to get some rain and cold temps!

[Stale fish]

Hobart has RAIN PERIODS forecast for Thursday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What's the chances of it raining off and on all day?????

Fingers crossed we get a bit!!

[Michael Fewings]

Should see snow to low levels on Wednesday night next week. Its so far out it is likely to change but I have been watching it and both models are sticking with it at this stage. Though this year it is not much to go by

I have to agree with you SF that the systems are now going through a change. High is much higher and EC has that scenario for the next 10 days which is something of a rarity this year.

I am watching the SW cold pool with interest on Sunday night. it may or may not pass over us in the SE. If it does we will have some very interesting weather.

Tony. Glad you got the Blueberries in. Let it rain!!

[troutmaniac]

Fingers crossed for tomorrow and the coming systems! not getting too excited just yet though

[troutmaniac]

Rain periods still forecast for tomorrow for Hobart, and a bit of an upgrade for the weekend. I love the sound of this overview

A strong high centred east of Victoria currently extends a ridge over Tasmania,
expected to move east today as a trough approaches from the west, crossing the
state tomorrow. A cold front is then expected to cross Friday night, followed by
a narrow ridge Saturday morning then a strong cold front Saturday night. Another
cold front is expected late on Sunday.

fingers and toes crossed........

i'm heading up top for the weekend too........

[Michael Fewings]

Worth a post now only if it comes off!!



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[TonyO]

Looks like GFS going all out for Tuesday night next week,still 5 days away but it has been hinting some sort of cold change in this period.Snow to very low levels possibly at this stage to sea level.Sat/Sun looks good for some rain here in the south finally,a bit of a SE flow on the western side of the low as it moves away.It looks like our winter pattern has finally arrived!!!!!

8.6mm here for the month 29.2mm for winter so far whooohoo!!

[Michael Fewings]

gee I have scored well tony with 14.8mm this month and 40.8 for the winter so far.

10mm of that from one event with the snow and 3.6mm my heaviest fall this month.

Agree wiht you re the outlook of it being cold. GFS has not settled down yet on how cold but it will be a snow event to low levels. Just not sure how low. Sea level before and now 200m.

Looking forward to some stuff from the sky. I has been a long time between falls of significance. That said my solar panels produced 7kwh's today. Starting to go up as the sun moves higher in the sky.

[Stale fish]

19.4mm so far this month just hoping for 0.6mm by 9am!!

Just hope the low sends the rain into the SE on Sunday.

Tuesday looks good, just hope it comes off.

[David Simpson]

Disappointing Thursday/Friday, the rain just didn't come, but with the front passing over now we have 10.7mm in White Hills and I would say a similar amount coming tonight or early Sunday with the second front. Cold air with this second front but most of the cold air + snow will hit the mainland, resorts in Vic & NSW should do well.

[Michael Fewings]

Noticed after yesterdays sunny day that the grass is dying.

It is quite brown now up the hill from us and another warm day today will knock off much more.

The model runs look great then look depressing. I would like to be an optimist on this one but history of late would sway me to the other side and say that we can't expect anything too great out of this. Even the model outlooks for snow to low levels is now backing away with the cold front to possibly turn cut-off and weak over Victoria which will mean nothing much for us down here.

It is not good seeing brown paddocks in July/August in the Huon.

Anyone wish to cheer me up?

[TonyO]

MF I will cheer you up because we will get 25mm of rain from both these events snow will be down to low levels early Wednesday morning and we will all be smiling come Wednesday night because optimism eventually becomes the winner!!!!

[Michael Fewings]

TonyO

Owe you a beer for the cheering up

2 if it comes off!!

Now to go and get some beer

back to weather...

Really don't like the way GFS is heading with the latest now showing only 10mm over the next week.

Other times I have seen this recently have meant 2 or less mm for us so lets hope that that changes!!

[TonyO]

Wed/Tues night still holding on for a good southerly change but drying out quickly Wednesday during the day,so lets hope 10mm with the front might be hopefull.MF you and SF might be lucky and get some local orographic lifting around the ranges in the Southerly.